MQ 3966 · TLH → MIA

departs 5:03 PM ET · arrives 6:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

49% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TLH

Weather at each end

TLH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3966 · TLH → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?