Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3991
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3991 · BNA → DCA
departs 3:30 PM CT · arrives 6:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 37%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.