Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4017
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 4017 · CLT → SGF
departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 9:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±8 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at SGF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SGF?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at SGF that day
↑
8pm departures from CLT are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SGF (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,467 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.39 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.