Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4034
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 4034 · DFW → MLI
departs 9:22 PM CT · arrives 11:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 25%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at MLI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MLI?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MLI that day
↓
MLI usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.90 in
MLI (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.