Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4034
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 4034 · DFW → MLI
departs 9:22 PM CT · arrives 11:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MLI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MLI?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MLI
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.48 in
MLI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.