Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4034
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4034 · DFW → MLI
departs 9:22 PM CT · arrives 11:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MLI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MLI?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Other factors
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MLI
↓
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.35 in
MLI (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.