Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4047
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 4047 · BOS → DCA
departs 8:22 PM ET · arrives 10:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±7 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.