MQ 4053 · DCA → RDU

departs 1:55 PM ET · arrives 3:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4053 · DCA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?