Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4064
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
MQ 4064 · DFW → CAE
departs 8:00 PM CT · arrives 11:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 37%
Sat 10/3 39%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at CAE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to CAE?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
8pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
CAE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
CAE (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.