Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4071
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 4071 · MIA → SRQ
departs 10:54 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 38%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±6 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at SRQ that day
↑
10pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.83 in
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.