Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4084
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 4084 · SAT → DFW
departs 1:44 PM CT · arrives 3:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 51%
Sat 10/3 46%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
87%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
87%
Leave 15+ late
80%
Arrive 1h+ late
47%
Cancelled
38%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 91% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
87%
Yes 87%
No 13%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 80% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
80%
Yes 80%
No 20%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
8%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
16%
Cancelled
38%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi, 6.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
2.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 557 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 3.76 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.