Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4092
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 4092 · DFW → SGF
departs 8:23 PM CT · arrives 9:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 13%
Wed 10/7 11%
Fri 10/9 13%
Sat 10/10 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
−19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −19 pts in 24h
−19 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SGF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to SGF?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
8pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SGF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
SGF (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 5.8 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.