Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4107
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 4107 · FAR → ORD
departs 5:00 AM CT · arrives 7:11 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave FAR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAR
Weather at each end
FAR (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.