Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4107
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4107 · FAR → ORD
departs 5:00 AM CT · arrives 7:11 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/1 11%
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave FAR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAR
Weather at each end
FAR (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.