Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4109
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 4109 · MIA → PNS
departs 11:08 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at PNS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PNS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
MIA is busy at that time
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.25 in
PNS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.