MQ 4124 · AUS → MIA

departs 4:16 PM CT · arrives 8:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
23%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 4pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

MIA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4124 · AUS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?