Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4128
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
MQ 4128 · DFW → SHV
departs 6:40 PM CT · arrives 7:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 45%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SHV more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at SHV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −20 pts in 24h
−20 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SHV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to SHV?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SHV usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
SHV (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.