Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4146
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 4146 · CLT → LIT
departs 11:30 AM ET · arrives 12:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 13%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at LIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LIT?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from CLT are often late
↑
CLT is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LIT (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.