Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 4164 · ORF → ORD
departs 6:46 PM ET · arrives 8:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±8 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.74 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.