Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
MQ 4164 · ORF → ORD
departs 6:46 PM ET · arrives 8:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
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How late will it get to ORD?
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On time or early
60%
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15–30 min late
17%
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30 min–1 hour late
13%
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1–2 hours late
6%
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Over 2 hours late
3%
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Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.