Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4173
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 4173 · DFW → CRP
departs 8:43 PM CT · arrives 10:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at CRP more than 15 minutes late?
78%
chance · ±0 pts
+22 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
78%
Leave 15+ late
63%
Arrive 1h+ late
35%
Cancelled
20%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CRP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
78%
Yes 78%
No 22%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Arrive at CRP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to CRP?
On time or early
18%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at CRP that day
↑
8pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
CRP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.18 in
CRP (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.