Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4174
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 4174 · ORD → RST
departs 9:00 AM CT · arrives 10:28 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 12%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at RST more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at RST more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RST?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi forecast at RST that day
↑
9am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
RST usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.89 in
RST (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.