Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4208
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
MQ 4208 · DFW → BIS
departs 9:10 PM CT · arrives 11:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 35%
Sat 10/3 28%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at BIS more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±1 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BIS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at BIS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BIS?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BIS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
BIS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.