MQ 4249 · DCA → HSV

departs 4:44 PM ET · arrives 5:39 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to HSV?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HSV

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

HSV (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4249 · DCA → HSV

Odds over time

How late will it get to HSV?