Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4261
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 4261 · AVL → DFW
departs 7:01 AM ET · arrives 8:44 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+27 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
44%
Cancelled
33%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +27 pts in 24h
+27 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +27 pts in 24h
+27 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +28 pts in 24h
+28 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
33%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AVL
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 2.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.