Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4261
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4261 · AVL → DFW
departs 7:01 AM ET · arrives 8:44 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at AVL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from AVL are usually not late
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0 mi Precip 0.52 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.