Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4278
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 4278 · DFW → HSV
departs 9:30 PM CT · arrives 11:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 49%
Sat 10/3 35%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
74%
chance · ±0 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
74%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
38%
Cancelled
13%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
74%
Yes 74%
No 26%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at HSV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
How late will it get to HSV?
On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
13%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HSV
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.74 in
HSV (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.