Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4300
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 4300 · MIA → VPS
departs 11:10 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 25%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at VPS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at VPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at VPS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to VPS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
11pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
VPS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.26 in
VPS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.