OH 5095 · DCA → CAE

departs 4:44 PM ET · arrives 6:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CAE?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ CAE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

CAE (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5095 · DCA → CAE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CAE?