OH 5167 · LAN → DCA

departs 1:07 PM ET · arrives 2:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LAN that day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ LAN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LAN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.54 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5167 · LAN → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?