OH 5173 · PVD → DCA

departs 5:01 PM ET · arrives 6:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PVD

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5173 · PVD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?