Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5209 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

OH 5209 · IND → PHL

departs 10:58 AM ET · arrives 12:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ 10am departures from IND are usually not late

↓ IND usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5209 · IND → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?