Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5209 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

OH 5209 · IND → PHL

departs 10:58 AM ET · arrives 12:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ 10am departures from IND are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IND

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5209 · IND → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?