Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5251 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

OH 5251 · DCA → TYS

departs 4:31 PM ET · arrives 6:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

TYS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5251 · DCA → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?