Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5251 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

OH 5251 · TYS → DCA

departs 7:17 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±7 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS

Weather at each end

TYS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5251 · TYS → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?