OH 5261 · DAY → DCA

departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:39 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DAY (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5261 · DAY → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?