Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5266 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

OH 5266 · MEM → PHL

departs 5:38 PM CT · arrives 9:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from MEM are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ MEM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5266 · MEM → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?