Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5266 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

OH 5266 · PHL → MEM

departs 3:23 PM ET · arrives 5:08 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5266 · PHL → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?