Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5286 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

OH 5286 · MKE → DCA

departs 1:04 PM CT · arrives 4:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MKE that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ MKE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.09 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5286 · MKE → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?