OH 5313 · ILM → DCA

departs 3:27 PM ET · arrives 4:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from ILM are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5313 · ILM → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?