OH 5398 · CLT → MEM

departs 4:20 PM ET · arrives 5:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Arrivals into MEM at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5398 · CLT → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?