OH 5404 · DCA → RDU

departs 4:21 PM ET · arrives 5:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5404 · DCA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?