OH 5484 · DCA → TYS

departs 7:46 PM ET · arrives 9:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

TYS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5484 · DCA → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?