OH 5586 · CLT → SBN

departs 4:01 PM ET · arrives 5:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SBN?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SBN that day

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ SBN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SBN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5586 · CLT → SBN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBN?