OH 5586 · SBN → CLT

departs 6:16 PM ET · arrives 8:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SBN that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ SBN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SBN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.40 in

CLT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5586 · SBN → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?