OH 5589 · IAH → DCA

departs 5:22 PM CT · arrives 9:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

72% chance · ±0 pts +28 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
35%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
26%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at IAH that day

↑ 5pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5589 · IAH → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?