OH 5602 · DCA → SDF

departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5602 · DCA → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?