Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3225
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
OO 3225 · SEA → TUS
departs 5:45 PM PT · arrives 9:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 31%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.