Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3783
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
OO 3783 · IAD → MSP
departs 6:46 PM ET · arrives 8:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 18%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.