OO 3811 · MSP → STL

departs 1:31 PM CT · arrives 3:16 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MSP that day

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling967 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3811 · MSP → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?